Five Charts From the Markets — No. 2

1. A record year, built on two deals. US IPOs have raised about $147 billion in 2026 through mid-October, more than three times 2025's full-year $44 billion. SpaceX's $75 billion base deal and SK hynix's $26.5 billion offering account for roughly 70 percent of it, while the number of listings is running about a third below last year. Chart: annual IPO proceeds 2021–2026 YTD, with the two largest deals shaded separately. Sources: Renaissance Capital.

2. The price of money moved. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 87 basis points in the third quarter, its largest quarterly increase since 1994 per LSEG data via Reuters, and passed 5.3 percent on October 1. On September 16 the Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75–4.00 percent, its first hike since 2023. Chart: 10-year yield, daily, January–October 2026, with the September 16 FOMC decision marked. Sources: Federal Reserve; US Treasury; LSEG via Reuters.

3. The convertible record. US-listed companies raised about $131 billion in convertible bonds through early September, above 2025's full-year record of more than $120 billion. Globally, Q2 2026 set a quarterly record at $84.6 billion across 96 deals. Chart: US convertible issuance by year, 2020–2026 YTD. Sources: Bloomberg; Numerix; BofA Global Research.

4. Testing the gate. Redemption requests at non-traded BDCs peaked at 12.4 percent of NAV in Q2 2026, against typical quarterly caps of 5 percent, then eased to 11.5 percent in Q3 as the unmet backlog fell to about $8.2 billion. Chart: quarterly requests as % of NAV vs. the 5% cap line, Q1 2025–Q3 2026. Source: Robert A. Stanger & Co.

5. The waiting room. PitchBook counts about 110 companies that looked IPO-ready in 2023 and still haven't listed, while private-equity distributions run at 7.9 percent of NAV against a 14.5 percent long-run average. Chart: annual distributions as % of NAV vs. long-run average, 2018–2026. Sources: PitchBook; Bain.